4:30 PM · 2 December 2022

Barkin from Fed and EBC members commented on monetary policy

Thomas Barkin, head of the Richmond Fed:

  • Labor shortage has fueled inflation. It looks like the labor supply will still remain limited;
  • Fewer workers would limit U.S. economic growth;
  • High savings by U.S. households are hampering the Federal Reserve's work;
  • The Fed has made clear its plan to do more on inflation;
  • Trying to bring demand back into balance will not be easy, especially with a surplus of household savings and fiscal stimulus.

Joachim Nagel, head of the Bundesbank:

  • Quantitative tightening (QT) should take place from the first quarter of 2023;
  • The ECB has several safeguards in place for QT. Markets are resilient enough to cope with it;
  • Rolling over APP bonds is the best option for QT.

Lusi de Guindos, ECB vice president:

  • We see that inflation is starting to slow down. Inflation will be softer in Q1;
  • The economic slowdown will not be as deep as expected a few weeks ago;
  • High probability of recession in the Eurozone;
  • Inflation at current levels will continue for 3 or 4 months;
  • Eurozone inflation in mid-2023 will hover around 7%.
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