- Initially, ECB members showed no inclination to raise rates in July
- However, a built consensus eventually allowed for a 25 basis point increase
- Too much focus on September, according to ECB members
- It was indicated that September projections may show a significant drop in inflation to the target within the forecast period, which could mean that a September increase won't be necessary
- Significant concerns about stagflation
- Core inflation remains too high
- The risk of a wage spiral is rather low
Clearly dovish minutes cast doubt on a September rate hike, even with a significant surprise of higher inflation. Nevertheless, as can be seen, there is a good chance that September projections will indicate inflation within the target in the forecast period, which won't justify another cut. EURUSD is already testing the vicinity of 1.0850.

Economic calendar: US CPI in the spotlight (13.02.2026)
Daily summary: Silver plunges 9% 🚨Indices, crypto and precious metals under pressure
BREAKING: US jobless claims slightly higher than expected
Economic calendar: US Jobless Claims and ECB Speeches to Offer Markets Breathing Room (12.02.2026)