12:54 PM · 31 August 2023

BREAKING: ECB minutes show bankers' uncertainty about further rate hikes!

  • Initially, ECB members showed no inclination to raise rates in July
  • However, a built consensus eventually allowed for a 25 basis point increase
  • Too much focus on September, according to ECB members
  • It was indicated that September projections may show a significant drop in inflation to the target within the forecast period, which could mean that a September increase won't be necessary
  • Significant concerns about stagflation
  • Core inflation remains too high
  • The risk of a wage spiral is rather low

Clearly dovish minutes cast doubt on a September rate hike, even with a significant surprise of higher inflation. Nevertheless, as can be seen, there is a good chance that September projections will indicate inflation within the target in the forecast period, which won't justify another cut. EURUSD is already testing the vicinity of 1.0850.

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