BREAKING: EUR muted after in-line German CPI data

2:01 PM 4 January 2024

Flash German CPI report for December was released today at 1:00 pm GMT. Report was expected to show an acceleration from 3.2% YoY reported for November to 3.7% YoY in December. State-level readings released earlier today all came in above previous months' readings.

Actual report showed CPI inflation for the whole Germany accelerating to 3.7% YoY, in-line with expectations. Monthly CPI came in at 0.1% MoM, also in-line with expectations. This echoes French reading released this morning, which also came in-line with expectations, but stands in contrast to Spanish reading released last week, that showed an unexpected deceleration. However, it should be said that the acceleration in Germany and France is largely due to base effects.

Markets have been rather muted in response to the release as it came in-line with expectations. EURUSD ticked lower but the scale of the move did not exceed 0.1%, while DE40 also saw a downtick.

German CPI inflation for December

  • Annual: 3.7% YoY vs 3.7% YoY expected (3.2% YoY previously)
  • Monthly: 0.1% YoY vs 0.1% MoM expected (-0.4% MoM previously)

German state-level CPI readings

  • North-Rhine Westphalia: 3.5% YoY vs 3.0% YoY previously
  • Hesse: 3.5% YoY vs 2.9% YoY previously
  • Bavaria: 3.4% YoY vs 2.8% YoY previously
  • Brandenburg: 4.5% YoY vs 4.1% YoY previously
  • Saxony: 4.3% YoY vs 3.9% YoY previously
  • Baden Wuerttemberg: 3.8% YoY vs 3.4% YoY previously

Source: xStation5

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