- Change in Non-farm Payrolls: 254k (expected: 150k; previous: 142k)
- Change in Private Payrolls: 223k (expected: 125k; previous: 118k)
- Two month-revision: 72k (previous: -82k)
- Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -7k (expected: -8k; previous: -24k)
- Unemployment rate: 4.1% (expected: 4.2%; previous: 4.2%)
- Average Hourly Earnings: 4.0% (expected: 3.8% YoY; previous: 3.8% YoY)
- Average Hourly Earnings monthly change: 0.4% (expected: 0.3% MoM; previous: 0.3% MoM)
EURUSD has dipped below 1.10 after the release as US adds more than 200k jobs, first time since June and is the highest since May. Before the release, market was pricing about 33% probability of Fed lowering rates by 50 basis points. With such a big surprise, a chance for the bigger rate cut is rather pretty low.
Hawkish remarks by BOJ Governor strengthen the yen – key takeaways
🏯Chart of the Day: Yen in a Trap. BoJ Hike That Weakened the Currency (18.09.2026)
Macro Calendar – Dovish BoJ Pivot and Key Data from Europe and the US
📊Morning Briefing: BoJ raises rates, but the yen paradoxically weakens (18.09.2026)