Euro is one of the best performing major currencies at the beginning of a new week. Solid performance of the common currency can be reasoned with hawkish remarks made by a number of ECB members over the week. A quick summary of those:
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Villeroy expects significant rate hike in September and neutral rate levels by year's end
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Rehn said ECB is monitoring FX market and he himself is concerned with current EUR valuation
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Schnabel said that rates must be increase even if it means recession
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Kazaks also said he is dissatisfied with EUR valuation and hinted that ECB may have to decide between 50 and 75 bp rate hike at September meeting
As one can see, all of the comments were hawkish and pointed to an acceleration of ECB tightening. Money markets reacted quickly and now price in a 65% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike at the September 8, 2022 meeting.
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Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appTaking a look at EURJPY chart at H4 interval, we can see that the pair broke above the 200-period moving average (purple line) and is now testing the 138.00 resistance zone, marked with previous price reactions. Should we see a break above, market attention would shift to the 138.900 handle, where the upper limit of the Overbalance structure can be found. Breaking above would, at least in theory, hint at bullish trend reversal.
Source: xStation5
