In the FX market, the key event of the day today may be the ADP data from the US and the decision of the Bank of Canada, which will announce its next monetary policy decision at 4 p.m. Analysts and the money market assume that the BoC will keep interest rates unchanged at 5.00% for the main rate (for the third time in a row).
Two weeks ago, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said that interest rates may be at the right level to bring inflation down to the 2% target, so today's decision may not surprise markets. At the moment, the money market is pricing that the central bank will cut rates by a total of 100 basis points in 2024.
However, the very tone of comments following the BoC's decision may be hawkish. Why? The bank has an incentive to keep talking about the possibility of rate hikes in order to prevent a further drop in government bond yields, which would reduce the actual effect of the current tightening.
Money markets do not expect more BoC rate hikes, and the first cut is fully priced for April 2024. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
The USDCAD pair has been pulling back recently, which was also partly due to the fact that oil prices fell. The pair tested the 1.3500 support zone, marked by previous price reactions, the 200-session moving average (golden curve), as well as the retracement of the 23.6% Fibo of the upward movement initiated in mid-June 2021. This zone is now the most important short-term support zone. Source: xStation 5
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