Cocoa under pressure from a looming recession?

On the cocoa market, we observe another negative opening. The price opened with a gap of about 1%, near the upward trend line based on the lows from May and June. It is important to remember that cocoa is usually under pressure during recession periods. The last recession in 2020 (or rather just before the recession, during the global asset price pullback in February-March 2020) led to a 25% price drop.

The breakout range of the small triangle is 6700, while the key technical support is at 7000. However, it is worth noting that both levels are likely to be breached due to the upcoming roll-over on August 7th. This roll-over will amount to about $1000, and given the current state, the price should open at around $6400. Nevertheless, if the market were to experience a true recession, one cannot rule out the completion of the large triangle formation, which suggests a drop to as low as $4500 per ton. This would be the lowest level since January.

15 July 2026, 7:25 AM

Morning Wrap: What’s next with the Strait of Hormuz, inflation and US interest rates? (15.07.2026)

14 July 2026, 6:34 PM

Daily Summary: Lower inflation weakens the dollar and awakens gold and S&P 500 to gains

14 July 2026, 4:03 PM

Bypassing Hormuz: Gulf States Race Against Time

14 July 2026, 11:52 AM

Market Wrap: Europe slips on Ormuz escalation, market awaits US CPI

Commodities

Cookie name	Description
SERVERID
userBranchSymbol	Expiration date 1 day
test_cookie	Expiration date 1 hour
adobe_unique_id	Expiration date 364 days
__hssc	Expiration date 1 hour
SESSID	Expiration date 1 day
__cf_bm	Expiration date 1 hour
intercom-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
intercom-session-iojaybix	Expiration date 6 days
xtbCookiesSettings	Expiration date 364 days
TS5b68a4e1027
countryIsoCode
xtbLanguageSettings	Expiration date 364 days
userPreviousBranchSymbol	Expiration date 364 days
intercom-device-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
__cfruid
_cfuvid

Cookie name	Description
_gid	Expiration date 1 day
_gat_UA-98728395-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_gat_UA-121192761-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_gcl_au	Expiration date 89 days
_ga_CBPL72L2EC	Expiration date 729 days
_ga	Expiration date 729 days
__hstc	Expiration date 179 days
__hssrc
_vwo_uuid_v2	Expiration date 365 days
_ga_TC79BEJ20L	Expiration date 729 days
_vwo_uuid	Expiration date 365 days
_vwo_ds	Expiration date 29 days
_vwo_sn	Expiration date 1 hour
_vis_opt_s	Expiration date 99 days
_vis_opt_test_cookie
af_id	Expiration date 394 days
afUserId	Expiration date 730 days
AF_SYNC	Expiration date 6 days
AnalyticsSyncHistory	Expiration date 29 days

Cookie name	Description
MUID	Expiration date 389 days
_omappvp	Expiration date 3998 days
_omappvs	Expiration date 1 hour
_uetsid	Expiration date 1 day
_uetvid	Expiration date 389 days
_fbp	Expiration date 89 days
fr	Expiration date 89 days
_ttp	Expiration date 89 days
_tt_enable_cookie	Expiration date 89 days
hubspotutk	Expiration date 179 days
IDE	Expiration date 389 days
YSC
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE	Expiration date 179 days
li_sugr	Expiration date 89 days
guest_id_marketing	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id_ads	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id	Expiration date 729 days
muc_ads	Expiration date 729 days
VISITOR_PRIVACY_METADATA	Expiration date 179 days
MSPTC	Expiration date 389 days

Cookie name	Description
bcookie	Expiration date 364 days
lidc	Expiration date 1 day
UserMatchHistory	Expiration date 29 days
bscookie	Expiration date 364 days
li_gc	Expiration date 179 days
personalization_id	Expiration date 729 days