Daily summary: Higher wages in Japan will lead to changes in BoJ stance?

8:06 PM 13 March 2024

- Wage negotiations in Japan are underway. Speculation is rife that major corporations are set to raise wages by up to 5%, which would be one of the biggest increases in recent years, in a bid to stimulate consumer activity and inflation

- The Nikkei reports that the Bank of Japan is expected to discuss an exit from negative interest rates next week. There was also earlier talk of abandoning the yield curve control programme

- USDJPY caps today's gains and is trading close to yesterday's close at 147.7

- However, the US dollar is weak today and losing against the euro, pound and Antipodean currencies. 

- Eurozone industrial production fell 6.7% y/y against an expected fall of -3% and 1.2% growth previously.

- Gold is significantly capping yesterday's declines and is trading around $2175, even despite a marked rise in US yields

- Silver gains close to 3.5% and is trading near $25 per ounce

- WTI crude oil is testing the $80 per barrel area after a marked decline in crude and gasoline stocks. US crude stockpiles fell by 1.5mn barrels, while gasoline fell by 5.7mn barrels

- Bitcoin crosses $73,000 today with further strong inflows into ETFs. Ethereum breaches $4000 again.

- Technology companies are lagging today, dragged down by losing Tesla and Nvidia shares. Wells Fargo analysts significantly lowered their price forecasts for Elon Musk's company's shares. Nvidia is losing ground today after yesterday's strong rise and is trading just above $900 per share

- The US market is set to see one of the biggest IPOs in recent times. Social media platform Reddit is to go public. The IPO has been pegged at $31-34 per share

- Today we are seeing slight declines on most global indices, which comes after yesterday's highs on the US500 and DE40. The US500 loses 0.05%, while the US100 loses 0.5%. Germany's DAX gained 0.14%, France's CAC40 added 0.62% and the representative Euro Stoxx 50 benchmark added 0.35%.

- Estimated UK GDP growth in February was 0.2% m/m vs. 0.2% forecast and -0.1% previously. On an annualised basis, GDP fell by -0.3% against -0.3% decline forecasts and 0% previously. On a quarterly basis, the reading indicated -0.1% against -0.1% forecasts and -0.3% previously. The lack of surprise meant that the GBP did not gain against the dollar like the EUR or AUD, for example.

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