ECB presents new forecasts, EURUSD tests 1.19

ECB presented new macroeconomic forecasts
Smaller drop in GDP expected in 2020 followed by slower growth in 2021
EURUSD tested 1.19 on FX rate comments

Press conference of ECB President Christine Lagarde started at 1:30 pm BST. Central banker stressed that the coronavirus pandemic had a negative impact on the economy but incoming data suggests strong rebound going forward with domestic demand recovering significantly. However, there is a high degree of uncertainty tied to projections. Lagarde said that the ECB sees no reason to overreact to recent euro strength. Still, the ECB will monitor developments on the FX market.

New forecast for 2020

GDP: -8% vs -8.7% in June
HICP: 0.3% vs 0.3% in June

New forecast for 2021

GDP: +5% vs 5.2% in June
HICP: 1% vs 1% 0.8% in June

New forecast for 2020

GDP: +3.2% vs +3.3% in June
HICP: 1.3% vs 1.3% in June

Lagarde said that risks to the growth outlook remain tilted to the downside while headline inflation should turn positive in the early 2021. As hinted by earlier media reports, changes to the forecasts were minor but increase in inflation forecasts for 2021 came as a small surprise. Responding to questions, Lagarde said that a stronger euro puts negative pressure on prices but also repeated that ECB's goal is to maintain price stability, not target FX rate.

EURUSD jumped towards 1.19 after Lagarde said there is no need to overreact to euro gains. Source: xStation5

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ECB presents new forecasts, EURUSD tests 1.19

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