Economic calendar: all eyes on Fed (17.09.2025)

Today’s economic calendar looks packed, but for most of the market there is really only one event – the Fed interest rate decision.

Markets have been largely pricing in a 25 bps cut for weeks, so the focus today will be on Jerome Powell’s press conference, which will shape investors’ expectations for further U.S. monetary easing. Interestingly, an unexpected 50 bps cut could paradoxically sound hawkish, especially if Powell’s language suggested a single “precautionary” adjustment to navigate a difficult balance or risks.

The Fed will not be the only central banking highlight. The Bank of Canada also announces its rate decision today, facing currently moderate inflation and an unusually weak labor market. Muted volatility in the forex and equity markets could also be stirred by today’s Eurozone inflation release and U.S. housing data. On the commodities side, the EIA report will likely make waves.

Today’s Economic Calendar:

• 07:00 BST – UK August inflation data:

  • CPI: current 3.8% y/y; forecast 3.8% y/y; previous 3.8% y/y

  • CPI: current 0.3% m/m; forecast 0.3% m/m; previous 0.1% m/m

• 08:30 BST – Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Lagarde

• 10:00 BST – Eurozone August inflation data:

  • CPI: forecast 2.1% y/y; previous 2.0% y/y

  • CPI: forecast 0.2% m/m; previous 0.0% m/m

  • Core CPI: forecast 2.3% y/y; previous 2.3% y/y

  • Core CPI: forecast 0.3% m/m; previous -0.2% m/m

  • HICP ex-energy & food: forecast 2.3% y/y; previous 2.4% y/y

  • HICP ex-energy & food: forecast 0.3% m/m; previous -0.1% m/m

• 13:30 BST – U.S. housing & construction data for August:

  • Housing starts: previous 5.2% m/m

  • Building permits: previous -2.2% m/m

• 13:30 BST – Canada – Canadian foreign securities purchases for July: previous 9.040B

• 14:45 BST – Canada – BoC statement

• 14:45 BST – Canada – Interest rate decision: forecast 2.50%; previous 2.75%

• 15:30 BST – Canada – BoC press conference

• 15:30 BST – U.S. EIA report:

  • Gasoline inventories: previous 1.458M

  • Heating oil inventories: previous 0.266M

  • Weekly refinery utilization – EIA (t/t): previous 0.6%

  • Crude oil throughput by refineries – EIA (t/t): previous -0.051M

  • Crude oil imports: previous 0.668M

  • Crude oil inventories: forecast 1.400M; previous 3.939M

  • Distillate fuel production: previous -0.024M

  • Weekly distillate stocks – EIA: previous 4.715M

  • Gasoline production: previous -0.285M

  • Crude inventories at Cushing: previous -0.365M

• 16:30 BST – U.S. GDP data:

  • Atlanta FED Nowcast (Q3): forecast 3.4%; previous 3.4%

• 18:00 BST – Germany – Speech by Bundesbank President Nagel

• 19:00 BST – U.S. – FOMC economic projections

• 19:00 BST – U.S. – FOMC statement

• 19:00 BST – U.S. – Interest rate decision for December: forecast 4.25%; previous 4.50%

• 19:30 BST – U.S. – Jerome Powell press conference