Economic calendar: Avalanche of GDP releases and UK retail sales

Summary:

• Preliminary GDP releases for Q3 from various countries will be reported through the day
• PPI for October from the United States
• A lot of central bankers on the agenda

9:30 am GMT - UK retail sales for October: The British pound has been driven lately by more promising headlines regarding Brexit, and this pattern is unlikely to change any time soon. Anyway, retail sales will tell us a lot about how domestic demand in the UK looked like in a month full of upbeat comments in terms of Brexit. 

10:00 am GMT - Preliminary GDP for Q3 from the Eurozone: Thursday is full of preliminary GDP readings for Q3 from various economies, including Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Poland. In the case of the Eurozone, the economy is expected to have grown 0.2% QoQ, the same pace was also seen in Q2. Barring a reading well above/below the consensus a market response is likely to be muted. Keep in mind that this will be a preliminary data, hence no contributions will be released. In turn, a print for Germany will be out at 7:00 am GMT and the economy is forecast to have shrunk 0.1% QoQ. 

1:30 pm GMT - US PPI and jobless claims: Producer price index in the United States is forecast to have fallen in October to 0.9% YoY from 1.4% YoY seen in September. At the same time, core PPI (ex. food and energy) is expected to have declined to 1.5% YoY from 2% YoY. Nevertheless, given the fact that the CPI data was released on Wednesday, today’s numbers are unlikely to affect either the greenback or bonds/stocks. In turn, jobless claims are expected to have risen 215k, up from 211k in the previous week. 

4:00 pm GMT - DoE weekly stocks data: Oil prices have risen recently on the back of comments from OPEC that it expects a “sharp” cut in crude output next year from countries outside the cartel. On top of that, one needs to remember that the cartal meets at its semi-annual meeting in several weeks where a decision on production cuts within the OPEC will be announced. The consensus points to 1.44 million barrels in case of crude inventories, while both gasoline and distillate inventories are expected to have slipped.

Central bankers’ speeches:

• 8:30 am GMT - Riksbank’s Floden

• 9:00 am GMT - Riksbank’s Ohlsson

• 9:45 am GMT - ECB’s Guindos

• 10:30 am GMT - Fed’s Quarles

• 11:00 am GMT - ECB’s Lane

• 2:00 pm GMT - Fed’s Clarida

• 2:00 pm GMT - ECB’s Knot

• 2:10 pm GMT - Fed’s Evans

• 3:00 pm GMT - Fed’ Powell (before the House Budget Committee)

• 4:45 pm GMT - Fed’s Daly

• 5:00 pm GMT - SNB’s Maechler

• 5:00 pm GMT - Fed’s Williams

• 5:20 pm GMT - Fed’s Bullard

• 6:00 pm GMT - Fed’s Kaplan