Economic calendar: ECB rate decision, US retail sales

• European indices set for flat opening
• ECB expected to deliver a 25 bp rate hike
• US retail sales data and regional indices due in the early afternoon

European index futures point to a more or less flat opening of the cash session on the Old Continent today. FOMC decided to keep rates unchanged at a meeting yesterday but a hawkish dot-plot led to a drop on Wall Street and the USD rally. However, those moves were reversed later on during Powell's press conference.

Markets' attention today will stay with central banks with ECB set to announce rate decision at 1:15 pm BST. ECB is expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate hike and release a new set of economic projections. Apart from the ECB meeting, US data - retail sales, regional indices - may trigger some USD volatility in the early afternoon. Energy traders will focus on the EIA report on natural gas inventories.

7:45 am BST - France, CPI inflation for May (final). First release: 5.1% YoY

9:00 am BST - Poland, CPI inflation for May. Expected: 13.0% YoY. Previous: 14.7% YoY

1:15 pm BST - ECB rate decision

1:30 pm BST - US, retail sales for May.

• Headline. Expected: -0.1% MoM. Previous: +0.4% MoM
• Ex-autos. Expected: +0.1% MoM. Previous: +0.4% MoM

1:30 pm BST - US, regional indices for June.

• Philadelphia Fed. Expected: -13.5. Previous: -10.4
• NY Empire State. Expected: -15.1. Previous: -31.8

1:30 pm BST - US, jobless claims. Expected: 250k. Previous: 261k

2:15 pm BST - US, industrial production for May. Expected: +0.1% MoM. Previous: +0.5% MoM

3:30 pm BST - EIA natural gas storage. Expected: +97 bcf. Previous: +104 bcf

Central bankers' speeches

• 8:00 am BST - ECB Nagel
• 1:45 pm BST - ECB President Lagarde (post-meeting press conference)
• 4:45 pm BST - BoE Cunliffe
• 5:00 pm BST - ECB Villeroy