Economic calendar: Focus on PMI indices

Summary

- German PMIs a key point of the European session
- Polish retail sales growth expected to accelerate significantly
- US manufacturing PMI to remain close to expansion-contraction threshold

8:30 am BST - Germany, PMI indices for August. The German survey gauges performed terrible in 2019. ZEW sentiment index dipped to the lowest level since 2011 while the manufacturing PMI slumped into recession territory in January and remained there since. Lacklustre “hard” macroeconomic data only makes the outlook worse. Significant improvement in PMIs could ease concerns but market consensus hints at little change against last month’s readings. Readings for the whole euro area will be released 30 minutes later (9:00 am BST).

9:00 am BST - Poland, Retail sales for July. Data from Poland released earlier this week came in better-than-expected in general. Today another key macroeconomic reading will be released and it may provide a boost for the Polish zloty in case it also beats estimates. Retail sales growth is expected to accelerate back above the 7% YoY threshold after two months of deceleration.

12:30 pm BST - ECB minutes. FOMC minutes released yesterday in the evening showed that the Federal Reserve is considering making use of other tools than rate cuts and quantitative easing. Such measures would be even more suitable in Europe where economic slowdown is more apparent. Nevertheless, Mario Draghi said during the post-meeting conference that the Board did not discuss the details of possible measures to be undertaken therefore the release may be a non-event. 

1:30 pm BST - US, Jobless claims. Market barely reacts to the jobless claims prints now but given that more and more hints at a possible economic slowdown in the US, investors may want to keep track of this piece of data as well. Prolonged period of rising claims could hint a deteriorating situation on the labour market.

2:45 pm BST - US, PMI indices for August. While markets are more focused on ISM indices when it comes to the US, one should not look past significant decline in PMIs that took place this year. Manufacturing gauge sits only slightly above the 50 pts threshold and a break lower could raise concerns. Median estimate points to a slight improvement in terms of manufacturing (uptick from 50.4 pts to 50.5 pts) and minor deterioration in terms of services (drop from 53 pts to 52.9 pts).

Central bankers’ speeches

- 7:30 pm BST - Fed’s Kashkari