Economic calendar: Focus on trade deal and German GDP estimate

• China and the United States to sign trade deal at 4:30 pm GMT

• German 2019 GDP estimate to be released in the morning

• Earnings from Goldman Sachs, BlackRock and Unitedhealth Group 

8:30 am GMT - Sweden, CPI inflation for December. Expected: 1.8% YoY. Previous: 1.8% YoY

9:00 am GMT - Germany, GDP growth estimate for 2019. First official estimate of the German GDP growth in 2019 will be released today by the German Federal Statistical Office. It is expected that the reading will show 0.6%, marking a significant slowdown from 1.5% recorded in 2018.

9:30 am GMT - UK, CPI inflation for December. GBP lost some ground after the elections and lacklustre production data released on Monday did not help the currency recover either. Sterling will get another chance today with CPI release. Data is expected to show headline measure staying unchanged at 1.5% YOY and core gauge remaining at 1.7% YoY.

10:00 am GMT - Euro area, industrial production for November. Annual industrial production in the euro area has contracted in each month of 2019 and the situation is expected to continue in November with a reading of -1.1% YoY (-2.2% previously). However, it should be noted that release of this data rarely has an impact on EUR.

1:30 pm GMT - US, Empire manufacturing index for January. Expected: 3.6 pts. Previous: 3.5 pts

3:30 pm GMT - DOE report on oil inventories. API report released yesterday showed an unexpected build of 1.1 million barrels. DOE report scheduled for today is expected to report a small increase in crude oil inventories and major builds in gasoline and distillate stockpiles.

4:30 pm GMT - ‘Phase One’ trade deal signing. China and the United States will sign the ‘Phase One’ trade deal today. Signing was well communicated so the act of signing alone should not have a major impact on the market. However, Steven Mnuchin said that related documents will be published today and the release could spur some additional volatility depending on the content.

Central bankers’ speeches

• 8:40 am GMT - ECB’s Holzmann

• 8:40 am GMT - BoE’s Saunders

• 3:30 pm GMT - ECB’s Villeroy

• 4:00 pm GMT - Fed’s Daly

• 4:00 pm GMT - Fed’s Harker

• 5:00 pm GMT - Fed’s Kaplan

Major earnings releases

• Bank of America (BAC.US)

• BlackRock (BLK.US)

• Charles Schwab (SCHW.US)

• Goldman Sachs (GS.US)

• Unitedhealth Group (UNH.US)