Economic calendar: Some crucial events beyond UK election

Summary:

• Swiss National Bank to make its final decision this year
• The first press conference of Christine Lagarde as the ECB concludes its meeting
• Crucial times to watch regarding the UK election

8:30 am GMT - SNB rate decision: When the SNB met in September it left rates unchanged, lowered its inflation forecast over the entire projection horizon as well as increased a multiplier of banks’ minimum reserves being excluded from negative rates when deposited at the SNB to 25 from 20. Since then the Swiss franc has been broadly stable against the common currency, albeit it has strengthened against the greenback to some extent. Although no one expects changes in rates today, a possible debate on CHF overvaluation might draw attention. 

10:00 am GMT - Industrial output for October from the Eurozone: Industrial releases for that month we got from other European countries were rather gloomy, hence a downside risk for today’s reading seems to be obvious. The consensus points to a 0.5% MoM decline.

11:00 am GMT - CBRT rate decision: The Turkish central bank is expected to slash its one-week repo rate by 150bps to 12.5% after inflation has subsided lately. On the other hand, base effects have already become less favourable meaning there may be some undesirable surprises to the upside. Keep in mind that the CBRT may take us off-guard too by slashing rates much more than anticipated (it did so previously).

12:45/1:30 pm GMT - ECB rate decision/Lagarde’s press conference: Rates on hold and some minor tweak to GDP forecasts - these are expectations ahead of the ECB’s meeting in December. Thereafter, attention will be paid to Christine Lagarde as she will take the floor as ECB President for the first time. Given a rising revolt among countries with regard to negative rates she might be asked whether rates could be cut even deeper. Either way, do expect some emphasis put on fiscal policy.

1:30 pm GMT - US PPI for November: Taking into account that CPI was more or less consistent with expectations today’s release should not be so important for markets. 

1:30 pm GMT - US weekly jobless claims

9:30 pm GMT - Manufacturing PMI for November from New Zealand

UK election: Voting starts at 7 am GMT and will last till 10 pm GMT. Some partial official results should be known roughly 30 minutes after the end of voting and a clearer picture should be known by 2:00 am GMT (Friday). In turn, a press conference from Downing Street is likely to be held on Friday morning. 

Central bankers’ speeches:

• 5:30 pm GMT - BoC’s Poloz