Economic calendar: The final stretch for 3 central banks this year

Summary:

• Three G10 central banks to announce there monetary policy decision during the day
• UK retail sales are expected to have bounced back in November
• US housing market data for November

8:30 am GMT - Riksbank’s rate decision: The Swedish central bank is expected to deliver a ‘one and done’ rate increase (25bps to 0%) at its last meeting this year, as it suggested in September it would so. However, the inflation outlook there is rather gloomy and no one expects a sudden acceleration in the foreseeable future. Therefore, this rate increase - designed mainly to take nominal rates back out of the negative zone - in considered as dubious by many market watchers.

9:00 am GMT - Norges Bank’s rate decision: In the case of the Norway’s bank expectations suggest no change will be made today. The bank delivered three rate hikes earlier this year and communicated the tightening cycle is put on hold. 

9:00 am GMT - Polish industrial production for November: November this year has two working days less compared to the same period last year, hence some downward surprises could occur (for example, wage growth sped up in November at a slower than expected pace). The consensus points to 0.3% YoY rise or a 6.2% MoM decline.

9:30 am GMT - UK retail sales for November: UK retail sales surprised to the downside in October, hence there are expectations it could erase this decline this time around. The consensus points to a 0.4% MoM increase when it comes to core sales (ex. fuels) and a 0.2% MoM rise when it comes to headline sales.

12:00 pm GMT - BoE’s rate decision: Although the Bank of England is not expected to alter any monetary policy settings, it will be remarkably interesting how its approach on Brexit has evolved in the aftermath of the election. Any hints at possible rate hikes once Brexit-related risks fade way could support the GBP. 

1:00 pm GMT - Polish central bank minutes

1:30 pm GMT - US weekly jobless claims: The consensus points to 225k vs. 252k in the previous week.

3:00 pm GMT - US existing home sales for November: The median estimate suggests a 0.4% decline compared to October which would be in line with the recent uptick in mortgage rates.

7:00 pm GMT - Banxico’s rate decision: The consensus suggests the Bank of Mexico could cut its main rate by 25bps to 7.25%.

Central bankers’ speeches:

• 10:00 am GMT - Riksbank’s press conference

• 3:30 pm GMT - ECB’s Lane