Economic calendar: Trade talks, ECB minutes and US inflation

• Next round of trade talks begins today in Washington

• ECB to release minutes from the September meeting

• Grains await WASDE report release

Trade talks

The next round of Sino-US trade talks begins today in Washington. Stakes are high as the United States are expected to hike tariffs on Chinese goods by 5 percentage points next week. In case talks go well, tariff hike could be postponed so traders should watch newsflow carefully as increased market volatility is expected.

Data to watch

9:30 am BST - UK, industrial and manufacturing production for August. The British pound remains pressured by Brexit drama but data from the United Kingdom does not bode well for the currency either. Industrial production data is expected to show a decline of 0.9% YoY in August while manufacturing production figures are expected to show a decrease of 0.7% YoY.

12:30 pm BST - ECB minutes. The European Central Bank lowered rates and reintroduced quantitative easing during September meeting. However, the Governing Council seems divided over whether it was a good decision or not. Focus in today’s minutes will be on how the decision was justified.

1:30 pm BST - US, CPI inflation for September. In spite of the Fed lowering interest rates earlier this year, the US headline CPI inflation remained subdued. However, the core gauge sat just below the 2.5% YoY mark in August and is expected to remain there in September. Faster acceleration could raise some concerns.

5:00 pm BST - WASDE report. Grains saw solid price gains recently as trade optimism caused risk appetite to increase and investors were concerned about weather conditions in Autumn. Today’s report will provide an insight into a harvest season and winter wheat planting progress.

Central bankers’ speeches

• 5:30 pm BST - Fed’s Daly

• 8:30 pm BST - Fed’s Daly

• 10:30 pm BST - Fed’s Mesters