Economic calendar: US PCE reading in the markets spotlight

• U.S. indices fall ahead of PCE data (12:30 GMT). VIX rises 2%; US100 drops below 20,000 points
• Market sentiment across European indices is cooling as traders await key data from Germany.
• EUR/USD is down nearly 0.2% after weak European macro readings, while U.S. Treasury yields are also declining.

Markets are showing caution today ahead of the U.S. PCE inflation report for February. A higher-than-expected reading could weigh on sentiment, especially after a series of Federal Reserve officials emphasized the importance of upcoming inflation data. If the data surprises to the upside, the market may begin pricing in a longer pause in Fed policy action—particularly given that trade tariffs are likely to drive inflation readings higher in the short term.

European macro readings weakened the euro, as German unemployment rate rised to 6.3% from 6.2% previously, with much jigher than expected unemployment change, while CPI from France and Spain came in lower. German consumers sentiments according to GfK surprised negatively while Italian consumers and business sentiments fell, below expectations. 

Economic Calendar (GMT)

12:30 PM GMT – U.S., PCE Inflation

• Forecast: 2.5% YoY vs. 2.5% previous

• Forecast: 0.3% MoM vs. 0.3% previous

Consumer Spending

• Forecast: 0.5% vs. -0.2% previous

Personal Income

• Forecast: 0.4% vs. 0.9% previous

Real Consumption

• Forecast: 0.3% vs. -0.5% previous

12:30 PM GMT – Canada, GDP Change (MoM)

• Forecast: 0.3% vs. 0.2% previous

2 PM GMT – U.S., University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final Reading)

• Expected: 57.9 (unchanged)

• Current Conditions: Expected 63.5 (unchanged)

• Expectations Index: Expected 54.1 vs. 54.2 previous

• 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 4.9% YoY

• 5-Year Inflation Expectations: 3.9% YoY

🎙️ Central Bank Speeches

• Fed’s Michael Barr

• Fed’s Raphael Bostic