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7:17 PM · 12 April 2023

➡️EURUSD tests 1.10 after FOMC minutes

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FOMC minutes released failed to trigger any major moves on the markets. While the document noted that some Fed officials considered holding rates unchanged amid banking turmoil, the decision to hike by 25 basis points was ultimately unanimous. An expected, continued drop in inflation gives Fed reasons to stay on hold at May meeting. However, banking turmoil seems to be over already and it was the reason for Fed to be less hawkish in March. Having said that, Fed's decision in May remains a mystery and both options - 25 bp hike or no hike - remain on the table. Currently, the market sees around a 60% chance of a 25 bp rate move.

EURUSD is trading around 0.8% higher on the day and is testing 1.10 following the release of FOMC minutes. Bulls have already attempted to break above it earlier today but that attempt turned out to be a failed one. However, today's move is driven by lower-than-expected US CPI reading and hawkish comments from ECB members rather than FOMC minutes release.

EURUSD at H4 interval. Source: xStation5

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