Fed decision - was it really dovish?

7:12 PM 2 November 2022

The Fed has already announced its monetary policy decision and it was in-line with expectations, at least in terms of a rate move. However, judging by market reaction one may say that it was a dovish decision. Some changes were made to the decision statement, compared to the previous meeting, and those seem to have caught markets eye. Namely, the Fed noted that rate hikes and cuts are affecting the economy with a lag and that it will take this lag into account when making next decisions. Some market commentators see it as paving ground for smaller rate hikes, starting from the next meeting and therefore being a prelude to so-called 'Fed pivot'. However, in our opinion markets are making up their own narrative when it comes to those lines in the statement as they alone do not hint at any major shift. We are now awaiting Powell's presser (start at 6:30 pm GMT), which may provide some more insight into Fed's thinking. However, it is highly unlikely that Powell will make a major announcement that was completely absent in the statement, and instead will try to send a rather balanced message.

US500, and other equity indices, spiked after Fed hinted that it will take policy lag into account when making future decisions. Source: xStation5

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