Morning wrap (13.10.2025)

U.S. indexes rebound during the Asian session amid hopes of U.S.–China de-escalation. U.S. stock indexes rebounded during the Asian session on hopes of easing tensions between the United States and China. On Monday, October 13, U.S. equity markets will operate as usual, while the bond market will remain closed in observance of Columbus Day.

Asia-Pacific markets are posting strong gains. Chinese indexes are up between +2.5% and +3.0%, Japan’s Nikkei rises +1.39%, Singapore’s index gains +1.0%, and Australia’s adds +0.10%.

Despite partial de-escalation over the weekend, lingering geopolitical uncertainty continues to support precious metals. Gold is up 1.75% to $4,075/oz, while silver rises even more strongly (+3.35% to $51.65/oz).

After threatening on Friday to impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods, Donald Trump softened his tone over the weekend — seen as part of broader negotiations. Markets rebounded as rhetoric cooled. Goldman Sachs now expects a “managed confrontation” rather than a full-scale escalation.

China’s rare-earth exports fell 31% m/m in September, reaching their lowest level since February amid tighter export controls. Detailed data will be released on October 20.

Meanwhile, the United States plans to purchase up to $1 billion worth of critical minerals to reduce dependence on China, with the Defense Logistics Agency overseeing the process.

China’s exports rose 8.3% YoY (the strongest in six months), and imports climbed 7.4% YoY (the most in 17 months). Record monthly imports of iron ore and soybeans highlight resilient demand. The trade surplus came in at $90.5 billion, slightly below expectations due to strong import growth.

The U.S. government shutdown has now entered its twelfth day. Vice President J.D. Vance has warned of deeper federal employment cuts, while hundreds of thousands of workers remain on unpaid furlough.

Cryptocurrencies rebounded on Sunday evening after steep losses on Friday, which capped off a volatile week. The overleveraged derivatives market was hit particularly hard by the brief U.S.–China trade flare-up, with more than $19 billion in long and short positions liquidated within 24 hours — a record amount.

Bitcoin fell more than 10%, and many smaller projects lost dozens of percent, but the declines were reversed on Sunday following Trump’s latest post signaling de-escalation. Bitcoin rebounded to $114,000, while other cryptocurrencies gained double digits in the same session.