Morning wrap (21.01.2026)

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The Asia-Pacific session is unfolding in moderate spirits following Tuesday’s sharp sell-off in the US. Moves across indices are limited to gains in the 0.20–1.10% range. Chinese indices are up between 0.20% and 0.40%, while Japan’s JP225 is leading gains, up as much as 1.10%.
Gold is rising 2.50% to another record high around USD 4,880 per ounce. Year-to-date, gold is up 13%, and a large part of the gains forecast by banks for 2026 may already be realized in the first month of the year.
Netflix slightly beat expectations in Q4: EPS came in at USD 0.56 (vs. 0.55), revenues reached USD 12.05bn (vs. 11.97bn), and free cash flow was notably stronger at USD 1.87bn (vs. 1.46bn). However, guidance for 1Q is mixed: revenue of USD 12.16bn is broadly in line with consensus, but operating profit guidance (USD 3.91bn) and the operating margin (32.1%) are below expectations. Netflix shares fell 5.40% in after-hours trading.
Barclays notes that while the dollar has weakened in the short term, the euro could be more vulnerable to declines in the event of a serious escalation in the US–EU conflict. Highly export-oriented economies, such as Germany, are seen as the most exposed to a trade escalation.
Goldman forecasts around an 11% return for global equities over the next 12 months, driven mainly by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion. The US500 is down 1.10% year-to-date.
US equities recorded their worst session since October, with the US500 down more than 2.00% and the US100 falling as much as 2.40%. The VIX volatility index surged toward 21 points and has eased back to around 19.85 points today.
Trump’s speech in Davos and talks with European leaders create room for tactical de-escalation. Historically, sharp market sell-offs often put pressure on US administrations to soften their rhetoric (the so-called “TACO” effect).
Japanese government bonds (JGBs) edged higher after a strong sell-off earlier in the week.
Currency moves are generally limited, with most major pairs trading in narrow ranges.
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced parliamentary elections for 7 November. The news, however, did not trigger any significant market reaction.

21 January 2026, 7:00 AM

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Morning wrap (21.01.2026)

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