Morning Wrap (30.06.2025)

The session in the Asia-Pacific region is stable, with index changes not exceeding +/- 0.30%. Chinese indexes are down between 0.10–0.30%.

The dollar is once again one of the weakest currencies on the market following Donald Trump’s suggestions to cut interest rates and implement changes at the Federal Reserve. The president emphasized the need to avoid high-interest debt and pushed for rate cuts. Major currencies like the euro initially gained but later stabilized. USDJPY fell toward 143.800 after early fluctuations.

Japan's industrial production rose by 0.5% m/m, well below expectations (+3.4%). On a yearly basis, output fell -1.8% versus a forecast of +1.6%. Forecasts remain weak, partly due to U.S. tariffs, although the Nikkei index (JP225) reached an 11-month high.

China's June manufacturing PMI came in at 49.7, marking the third consecutive month of contraction. The sector continues to suffer from weak domestic demand and U.S. trade tensions. The services PMI rose to 50.5, indicating expansion, especially among large and medium-sized enterprises.

Canada has dropped its planned digital services tax on U.S. tech firms to resume trade talks with the U.S. Trump and Canada’s Carney agreed to restart negotiations, aiming for a deal by July 21. The Canadian dollar strengthened following the news.

In the U.S., Fed members Bostic and Goolsbee are set to deliver speeches on economic outlook and monetary policy. Bostic will speak in London at 14:00 GMT, and Goolsbee at the Aspen Ideas Festival.

ECB representatives, including Christine Lagarde and Luis de Guindos, will speak at the ECB Forum in Sintra, discussing macroeconomic shifts and monetary policy responses.

Michael Saylor hinted in a tweet at another Bitcoin purchase, possibly marking the 11th consecutive week of buying. On June 23, his company bought 245 BTC worth $26 million, increasing its holdings to 592,345 BTC.