UK inflation above expectations; pound gains 📈

7:08 AM 20 August 2025

CPI in the UK (M/M) July: 0.1% (est. 0.0%; previous 0.3%)
- CPI (y/y): 3.8% (est. 3.7%; previous 3.6%)
- Core CPI (y/y): 3.8% (est. 3.7%; previously 3.7%)
- CPI Services (y/y): 5.0% (est. 4.8%; previously 4.7%)
- CPIH (y/y): 4.2% (est. 4.1%; previously 4.1%)

The transport, particularly air fares, made the largest upward contribution to the monthly change in CPI annual rates; housing and household services, particularly owner occupiers' housing costs, made a large, partially offsetting, downward contribution in CPI.

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Inflation in the UK is higher than expected, confirming the Bank of England's stance on pausing its cycle of rate cuts in September. At this point, the probability of such a scenario (maintaining interest rates) is close to 93%. Source: ONS

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