UK inflation above expectations; pound gains 📈

CPI in the UK (M/M) July: 0.1% (est. 0.0%; previous 0.3%)
- CPI (y/y): 3.8% (est. 3.7%; previous 3.6%)
- Core CPI (y/y): 3.8% (est. 3.7%; previously 3.7%)
- CPI Services (y/y): 5.0% (est. 4.8%; previously 4.7%)
- CPIH (y/y): 4.2% (est. 4.1%; previously 4.1%)

The transport, particularly air fares, made the largest upward contribution to the monthly change in CPI annual rates; housing and household services, particularly owner occupiers' housing costs, made a large, partially offsetting, downward contribution in CPI.

Inflation in the UK is higher than expected, confirming the Bank of England's stance on pausing its cycle of rate cuts in September. At this point, the probability of such a scenario (maintaining interest rates) is close to 93%. Source: ONS

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