Los datos de la Eurozona continúan por debajo de las altas estimaciones

Resumen:

• Los datos de Europa continúan siendo pobres pese a alcanzar las estimaciones 
• El EURUSD se mantiene en un estrecho canal 
• El GBP hace aguas mientras Boris toma rumbo a Francia

Un exceso de optimismo acerca de los datos de manufacturas industriales se ha trraducido en un ligeramente superior a lo esperado resultado para la economía de la Eurozona, si bien continúa siendo insuficiente. Los datos de Francia, Alemania y la Zona Euro en su totalidad han alcanzado las cifras indicadas por consenso de analistas, aun cuando esto se ha debido principalmente a unas pesimistas predicciones más que a unas expectativas de fortalecimiento económico. Por ejemplo, los datos de Alemania siguen señalando a una recesión, tras registrarse unas cifras de 43.6 (el octavo resultado de este indicador por debajo del nivel 50, clara señal de contracción económica).

While there was a pick-up in German manufacturing PMI for August the overall picture remains pretty bleak and the composite reading is dangerously near falling below the 50 mark and into contraction. Source: Bloomberg

Furthermore, the outlook for new orders makes for pretty grim viewing and doesn’t suggest a sustained recovery anytime soon. There’s also concerns that the weakness seen in manufacturing is spreading, with the German service sector activity falling to a 7-month low and while a reading of 54.4 is comfortably above contraction territory, it would not be too surprising to see this slip further in the coming months - particularly if manufacturing continues to languish around the current levels. 

The EURUSD is in a fairly narrow range and the move higher after the PMI beat has proven short lived. Source: xStation 

Boris to meet Macron 

The second stop on Boris Johnson’s European trip will see the UK PM meet with the French president for a working lunch. The meeting last night with German chancellor Angela Merkel failed to yield any real progress but at least the tone from both sides was fairly optimistic and constructive. However, Boris is unlikely to get as warm a welcome from Macron, who is one of the most pro-EU leaders in Europe and already set the tone for their meeting by warning that Brexit could turn the UK into a vassal state. 

Macron was also reportedly the last of the EU 27 leaders to agree on the extension to the Brexit deadline earlier this year and there’s a sense that he will take the hardest approach of all leaders from EU countries in negotiations. The pound continues to tread water near its recent lows, with traders clearly awaiting further clarity on the likely outcome of Brexit before committing to any high conviction positions.