Join Kathleen here at 13:20 BST
US payrolls data will be released today at 13:30 BST. Analysts have been fairly downbeat on this report, which could puncture the narrative that the US economy is resilient in the face of tariff threats. The labour market data is not set to contract, however, the median estimate for the July data is 104k. The range of estimates is wide, between 0 – 170k, which suggests that today’s payrolls could go either way and is anyone’s guess. If it is a big miss, then there could be a move higher in bonds, and a fall in yields, which may weigh on the dollar’s dominance over the past month. The Dollar index is rising sharply as we lead up to payrolls, and is currently above 100.00, the highest level since May. US equity market futures are pointing to a much lower open, as the latest tariff news weighs on global risk appetite. However, a weak payrolls reading could lead to a recalibration of US rate cut expectations, which may ease the blow to US stocks at the end of this week.
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