Market wrap (05.08.2026)

Iran said that its agreement with Oman on reopening the Strait of Hormuz could be delayed as long as U.S. threats persist. Earlier reports had pointed to a Wednesday announcement. Markets still expect at least a temporary agreement to be reached.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump said negotiations were progressing well and that the Strait of Hormuz should reopen soon. At the same time, he warned Iran of a strong military response if the talks fail.

According to reports, the U.S., Iran, and Oman are close to reaching a 60-day agreement covering traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the reinstatement of a ceasefire. Iran would gain greater control over shipping than it had before the conflict, while Oman would take on an operational role.

According to an anonymous Israeli official, Donald Trump is seeking an agreement with Iran "at any cost." The comment suggests concerns that Washington may be willing to accept terms favorable to Tehran in order to bring the conflict to a swift end.

Oil prices continue to decline, with OIL down 0.10% today to $78.30 per barrel and OIL.WTI down 0.30% to $74.90 per barrel. Lower risks of disruptions to energy supplies have also reduced short-term inflation expectations. However, prices remain vulnerable to potential delays or renewed tensions.

Gold is up 1.90% to $4,190 per ounce, as lower oil prices have eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations of further Fed tightening. Improved prospects for the energy market could lead to lower bond yields and a weaker U.S. dollar, providing support for precious metals.

New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to its highest level in 11 years, putting pressure on the New Zealand dollar. However, the rest of the report was less negative, with employment increasing slightly more than expected. Overall, the data point to growing labor market slack, which could help ease the RBNZ's inflation concerns.

The Bank of Japan's June rate hike to 1.0% was approved by a 7–1 vote. Policymakers concluded that the upside risks to inflation outweighed the negative impact of the Middle East conflict on economic growth. The decision was supported by strong wage growth, rising inflation expectations, and the rapid pass-through of higher oil prices into the economy. The BOJ also reaffirmed its plan to halt further reductions in JGB purchases from April 2027 onward.

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said inflation remains too high and that monetary policy should be more restrictive. He also added that AI-related investment is contributing to inflationary pressures.

The RatingDog China Services PMI fell to 50.4 in July from 54.1, well below market expectations.

Australia's Services PMI rose to 53.6 in July, its highest level in six months. New orders returned to growth, employment increased, and business confidence improved.

AMD beat analysts' expectations on earnings, revenue, and operating profit. Its third-quarter revenue guidance also came in above consensus, signaling continued strong demand momentum. However, this was not enough to satisfy investors, and the stock fell 8.80% in after-hours trading.

SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year and above expectations. The operating loss in its AI segment was significantly smaller than forecast, while adjusted EBITDA comfortably exceeded consensus estimates. Starlink remained the company's primary growth driver. Despite the strong results, the stock fell more than 7% in after-hours trading.