OIL: Growing market hopes for de-escalation? ⚔️

Oil prices have fallen nearly 4% since yesterday in response to renewed signals of possible de-escalation in the Middle East. The move took place toward the end of yesterday’s session, and today oil is holding at relatively stable levels with no major changes. At the time of writing, OIL is down 0.30% to 95 USD per barrel, and OIL.WTI to 88 USD per barrel.

President Trump stated that negotiations with Iran are ongoing, and Tehran signaled that “non-hostile” vessels may be allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz under coordination with Iranian authorities. This development eased concerns about a full and prolonged disruption.

The decline in oil prices reflects a partial unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium rather than a full normalization of the physical market situation. While headlines about a possible US proposal to Iran and ceasefire talks have improved sentiment, Iranian officials continue to deny direct negotiations, and military activity in the region remains intense.

Reuters also reports that disruptions in the region are already translating into broader energy tensions, with Shell warning that Europe could face shortages as early as next month. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs indicates that oil prices are currently driven less by the base-case scenario and more by shifting probabilities of tail-risk scenarios.

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