Crypto news: Bitcoin starts $30,000 breakout attempt? Sell-side risk ratio near historic lows 📊

Bitcoin is trying to break the sideways trend and, on the wave of a temporarily retreating dollar, 'welcomes the week' with an attempt to attack the area around $29,700 from where an upward move above $30,000 would potentially be possible. 

Bernstein believes in ETF

• The Bernstein report highlights that the potential approval of a new ETF by the SEC would be a powerful driver for the industry due to the interest of new capital and the tokenization of the entire blockchain infrastructure.
• Bernstein says that both institutions and retail investors would then take a serious interest in the crypto industry - the report said that the world's largest investment funds are interested in such a turn of events.
• According to estimates, an ETF fund could raise about $60 billion in two to three years (10% of capitalization - roughly how much BTC is currently traded on exchanges). However, given how many addresses are currently dormant, this size of interest could significantly raise the price of the major cryptocurrency.

A weaker dollar clearly favors Bitcoin - in recent days, however, the dollar index has been doing well and climbed today to levels not seen since early July. Will Bitcoin's upward movement extend this time? Source: xStation5The distribution of supply indicates a very large amount of Bitcoin held by short-term investors at prices between $25,000 and $31,000. Looking back, Glassnode points out that similar levels with significant STH investor positions were very significant resistances during the early stages of the bull market. If prices fall below $25,000 we could experience panic related to addresses exposed to unrealized loss. If the bulls manage to break through $31,000 - the magnitude of the euphoria may surprise the market (a barrier to profit realization by current STH addresses). Source: GlassnodeAccording to the indicator, a total of about $16 billion (+4.1% y/y) has flowed into Bitcoin. It can also be seen that the growth is relatively small - incomparable to the bull market of 2021 - 2022. The inflow of new investors is not rapid this time, which is definitely influenced by the monetary policy of central banks. Source: GlassnodePeriods of record low volatility (currently) usually indicate key market phases. Usually high volatility motivates investors to sell BTC, at a sizable loss or a sizable gain. Low volatility causes most BTC to have a price fairly close to the current spot price. The Sell-Side risk ratio is at historic low levels (less than 27 days in Bitcoin's history have seen lower volatility). This means that everyone who wanted to realize a profit or loss in the current price range. Ultimately, the market needs to perform significantly to motivate new groups of investors to change their behavior. Source: GlassnodeBitcoin chart, H4 interval. The price is oscillating between the 38.2 and 23.6 Fibonacci retracement of the mid-June upward wave. If the SMA200 (red line) and the 23.6 Fibo  can be broken, we may see an attempt to enter above $30,000 this week. Source: xStation5