Facts:
- The Pound gained in July due to the UK elections, which eliminated uncertainty over the future of the British economy
- The Bank of England initiated a cycle of interest rate cuts, despite mixed market expectations.
- We are observing the highest-ever amount of long positions held by hedge funds.
Trade: Short position at market price.
TP1: 1.255
TP2: 1.235
SL: 1.30
Justification:
The Pound gained in July due to the elimination of risk related with the general elections. Speculative funds positioned heavily on pound for risk-off and potentially hawkish BoE decisions. The Bank of England decided to cut interest rate, the first time in four years, and hinted at a cycle of cuts. GBPUSD is breaking out of an uptrend that has been in place since April. Seasonality (based primarily on a sharp decline from last year) suggests that the Pound should weaken in August. The extremely high number of long positions may indicate a risk of these positions being closed, which could put pressure on the Pound. We must bear in mind that today's NFP data release could lead to significant volatility in the dollar. Consequently, there is a risk that this pair may rebound if the US data would be unfavorable.
US100 พุ่งต่อเนื่อง! บวกอีก 0.35% แล้วตอนนี้
ข่าวเด่น: US500 ขยับขึ้นเล็กน้อยหลังการโทรหารือระหว่างทรัมป์กับสี จิ้นผิง 📈
Trade of the day - CH50cash (22.09.2023)
Grifols receives a boost from the European Parliament
- XTB data
- A person preparing a recommendation
- Michał Stajniak, Deputy Director of Research Department
- Other persons participating in preparation of recommendation
- A name of entity supervising
- Date and hour of preparation of recommendation
- 8/02/2024 17:04
- Date and hour of publication of recommendation
- 8/02/2024 17:19
- A group of addressees of the recommendation
- XTB customers and potential customers
- Relevant information sources
- Bloomberg, xStation5
- A time horizon for the recommendation
- จนกว่าจะถึงเป้าหมายหรือราคา stop loss
- Projected date of actualization
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- Register of recommendations
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