The chaotic trade policy of Trump’s new administration, speculations surrounding U.S. tariffs as primarily a negotiating tool, and the still weak dollar are supporting gold prices, which are gaining 0.4% today, testing the $2,900 per troy ounce area. The Dollar Index remains lower, failing to stage a strong rebound after the recent downward impulse.
Echoes of Weak U.S. Retail Sales
Last Friday, we witnessed the largest decline in U.S. retail sales in nearly two years, reported for January. Currently, the market is pricing in the first Fed rate cuts from September, whereas earlier estimates suggested the Fed would only begin easing monetary policy in December. Additionally, the prospect of a "softer" trade policy under Trump (which would likely be negative for the U.S. Dollar Index) is supporting a rebound in precious metal prices.
According to the latest Commitments of Traders (CoT) report, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the "Managed Money" group has reduced bullish gold bets to their lowest level in four weeks. Despite this, last Friday, gold marked its seventh consecutive weekly gain, the longest winning streak since 2020.
Today, alongside gold’s 0.4% increase, silver, palladium, and platinum are also rising between 0.4% and 0.7%.
GOLD Chart (H1 Interval)
Source: xStation5
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