InPost shares plunge 6% amid long-term Allegro partnership concerns 📉

On the Dutch Euronext stock exchange, InPost (INPST.NL) shares are down nearly 6% today after polish e-commerce giant, Allegro posted earnings report.

• While the results point to positive growth prospects for 2025, they also raise questions about the long-term collaboration between Allegro and InPost, particularly regarding the terms of their partnership moving forward. Allegro’s Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth forecasts are projected to remain in the low double-digit range, following an 11% increase in 2024.
• Despite the optimistic outlook, Allegro’s decision to ramp up investments in its own parcel locker network as part of its preparations for a potential new contract beyond 2027 has sparked concerns over InPost’s future positioning. The key question remains whether InPost will maintain its dominant role as Allegro’s delivery partner, given Allegro’s strategy of expanding its in-house locker network to gain more flexibility once its current agreement with InPost expires at the end of 2027.

Barclays analysts weighed in on the situation, stating: "We assume these moves by Allegro are aimed at increasing its strategic flexibility when the current agreement with InPost expires in late 2027. However, we still believe that it is the consumer who ultimately decides on the preferred delivery option, and InPost remains the highest-density and most open network, essentially a one-stop-shop for all online orders, not just Allegro, offering the best quality."

• Concerns about the post-2027 period have emerged, particularly regarding the possibility of Allegro developing a large enough locker network to reduce InPost’s priority at checkout. However, Barclays analysts emphasized that this is not their base-case scenario, as InPost still holds a significant share of the market.
• Nonetheless, any shifts in consumer preferences and Allegro’s potential prioritization of its own delivery network could weigh on InPost’s long-term valuation, especially as the company may have to reduce its dependence on Allegro moving forward.

InPost Stock (INPST.NL)

InPost shares have fallen below the EMA200, signaling a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish. The next key support level is around €13.6 per share, which also coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend from 2022.

Source: xStation5