US stock markets made a fresh record high on Wednesday as we lead up to today’s payrolls report. The market is expecting a reading of 106k for last month, and the unemployment rate is expected to inch up to 4.3%, which would be the highest rate since 2021. Average hourly earnings are expected to fall a notch to 3.8%, and initial jobless claims are expected to rise. A negative ADP private sector payrolls report did not spook the stock market on Wednesday, and expectations for a Fed interest rate cut rose slightly to 25% from 20%. The ADP does not have a great correlation with the NFP report, however, a weak jobs reading for June, which is less than 100k, could see the market step up rate cut expectations for the US, which may weigh on the dollar, and trigger lower Treasury yields.
Overall, the focus is on the UK this morning, before it switches to the US. We expect a cautious tone to markets today, although the dollar is higher against most G10 currencies, and S&P 500 futures are also pointing to a higher open later today.
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