European Central Bank released minutes from its most recent monetary policy meeting (March 7, 2024) today at 12:30 pm BST. While ECB minutes are always noteworthy, there was an expectation that today's release may be a non-event. Rates were left unchanged and new economic projections pointed to lower GDP growth and higher inflation, compared to December 2023 projections. ECB did not provide any clear guidance on rates, but ECB President Lagarde said in a speech two weeks ago that June meeting could be a good moment to cut rates.
As expected, ECB minutes released today did not include any surprises. Document showed that ECB members are increasingly confident that inflation is on the way to target. However, it was noted that Governing Council needs more data and evidence to be sufficiently confident of this. While ECB expects bumpy inflation profile after the summer, it was also said that the case for considering a rate cut is strengthening. However, rate cut discussion was seen as premature at this point. Still, ECB said that patience and caution is still needed.
Overall, ECB minutes turned out to be a non-event and markets barely saw any reaction to it.
EURUSD has been muted following release of ECB minutes. Source: xStation5
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