Chart of the day - NZDJPY (04.08.2021)

The New Zealand dollar is rallying against other major currencies today. Antipodean currency gains following release of stellar quarterly jobs data for the second quarter of 2021. Employment increased 1% quarter-over-quarter while the market expects an increase of 0.7% QoQ. Unemployment rate plunged from 4.7% to 4% (exp. 4.5%). The data strengthens the case for a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Major Antipodean banks - ANZ, ASB, KiwiBank, Westpac and Westpac - now expect RBNZ to deliver 25 basis points rate hikes at each of the three coming meetings (August 18, October 6, November 3). Interest rate derivatives market prices in a 30 basis points tightening in August and a 30% chance of 50 basis points rate hike this month.

Taking a look at the NZDJPY chart, we can see that the pair has reached an important resistance zone. Area ranging below 77.25 handle is marked with the 38.2% retracement of a downward move launched in May 2021, 200-period moving average (H4 interval, purple line) and downward trendline. In case bulls manage to push the index above this resistance area, a way towards the next major resistance - 0.7800 mark - will be left open.

Source: xStation5