We recently discussed new forecasts from Goldman Sachs, which sees Brent crude price at $ 100 per barrel within the next three quarters. The price of oil is not that far from this level, but there are still many question marks and risks regarding this scenario.
Morgan Stanley joins Goldman and also expects oil prices to jump to $ 100 a barrel. Bank believes that, in the second half of this year we will experience three factors that may cause a sharp increase in prices. It will be an insufficient level of inventories, a lack of sufficient spare production capacities and small investments in the market.
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Morgan Stanley points to three factors that will drive oil prices in the upcoming quarters. Source: Bloomberg
This scenario is materializing now. OPEC + members such as Nigeria, Angola and Russia have trouble returning production to pre-pandemic levels. This is due to a lack of cash or insufficient investments. Additionally, it is worth noting that in the USA the topic of limiting the development of the shale sector has returned. It is worth mentioning the strong rise of the ESG trend, also on Wall Street, which will probably not allow for another revival of the shale sector, even despite significantly higher prices. In the past, investment in the shale sector has accelerated when the oil price has risen to around USD 60-65 per barrel. At the moment it can be seen that banks and investment firms are turning their backs on "dirty energy".
Brent crude oil prices have soared to nearly $ 90.00 this week, but pulled back after strong declines on Wall Street. If price does not fall below the lower limit of the ascending channel and moves within its limits, the next target for bulls is located at $ 100 per barrel where local highs from 2013 can be found. Source: xStation5
