RBA decided to keep rates unchanged at the second meeting in a row, pressuring AUD
AUDUSD is trading 0.7% lower, slightly more than an hour after RBA policy announcement. Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to hold rates unchanged for the second meeting in a row. Expectations ahead of the meeting were split - economists saw a chance for a 25 bp rate hike while money markets priced in an over-60% of rates staying unchanged. Statement was Fed-like with hints that further tightening is not off the table but will be data-dependent. A lower-than-expected CPI print for Q2 2023 likely gave RBA comfort to keep rates unchanged today.
Market participants seem split on what comes next. Some say that the RBA will deliver one more rate hike this year. However, money markets are rather conservative with pricing - peak is currently seen at around 4.25% in December, down from yesterday's pricing of 4.35% peak at the turn of 2023 and 2024. NAB and ANZ signal that one more hike may come what would support AUD. However, other see AUDUSD dropping to as low as 0.6400 should global slowdown triggered by US recession materializes.
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Market pricing for rate hikes at future RBA meetings is low but at the same time it should be noted that market does not expect cuts until the end of 2024 either. Source: Bloomberg
AUDUSD is dropping significantly today, although it still trades relatively far above local lows from the previous week. The pair is trading sideways in a wedge pattern. Source: xStation5
