Antipodean currencies are subject to slightly higher volatility than usual today due to a number of updates on steel and aluminum tariffs that the new Trump administration wants to raise. The new 25% tariffs nullify all existing agreements and will go into effect on March 12. However, the market assumes that there is a possibility of some concessions in negotiations between the countries until then, so the forex market's reaction to the news was relatively calm.
It is on this front that we are seeing aspects that are raising volatility in the AUD and NZD markets today. Australia's Prime Minister Albanese said that Trump was considering exempting Australia from the tariff changes with respect to steel, but the market a few minutes later was heavily surprised by Trump's words, who stated that there would be no exceptions in these decisions.
The situation is similar for New Zealand. New Zealand Finance Minister Willis announced today that NZ has a warm relationship with the US, setting the stage for discussions on tariff plans.
Without exception, the market is watching closely to see if, after recent attempts to ease tariff pressures imposed by the U.S., such a scenario will happen now as well. The market is waiting and analyzing whether by March 12 Trump will be willing to further dialogue with other countries in the context of a possible loosening of trade policy changes.
The AUDUSD pair is testing the 50-day exponential moving average (blue curve) for the second time, the slope of which indicates that the pair has been in a downtrend for quite some time. A breakout above this zone could break this trend and allow for a possible broader rebound in the Australian dollar. Source: xStation
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