EURCAD is expected to be one of the more active FX pairs today. Canadian jobs market report for March will be released at 1:30 pm BST and is likely to provide at least short-term volatility boost for CAD. Market expects an employment gain of 80k jobs, much smaller than 336.6k reported in February. Unemployment rate is expected to drop to 5.3%, following a massive plunge from 6.5 to 5.5% in February. EURCAD may also get a chance to move today between 9:00 am BST and 12:30 pm BST as 6 ECB speakers are scheduled to speak. Last but not least, the first round of French presidential elections is scheduled for this Sunday. It looks almost certain that Macron and Le Pen will make it to the second round of the ballot. However, traders should keep in mind that potential surprising outcomes may trigger some volatility in the EUR market at the beginning of a new week.
Taking a look at EURCAD chart at weekly interval (W1), we can see that the pair has been trading in a steep downward move since August 2020. Pair has recently dropped to the lowest level since mid-2015. A support zone marked with 61.8% retracement of the upward move launched in the second half of 2012 is being tested at press time (1.3670 area). Sellers already tried to push the pair below this zone earlier this week but decline was halted at the 1.3580 handle. This is an important level to watch as it marks the lower limit of the Overbalance structure. A break below would hint at a trend reversal and potential for a deeper decline. In such a scenario, the first support zone to watch can be found near the 78.6% retracement (1.30 area).
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Source: xStation5
