EURCAD may see some volatility today. Firstly, the EU summit begins today and representatives of EU member countries will work on the details of the natural gas price cap. Media reported that Germany dropped its opposition to the general idea, clearing the main hurdle for details to be worked out. Depending on the final shape, EUR may experience elevated volatility. However, it should be noted that the EU often works rather slowly on new regulations and therefore there is a chance that we won't get to know any details today at all. What's more certain is the release of Canadian retail sales data for August, that will come in at 1:30 pm BST. Median consensus is for a small month-over-month increase following a steep drop is expected to be much smaller than in the previous month. Headline reading is expected to show a 0.2% MoM increase while the ex-auto gauge is seen rising 0.3% MoM. While retail sales data is definitely worth watching and may trigger some short-term volatility on CAD, it is unlikely to impact next week's BoC decision as the Canadian central bank is widely believed to keep following in Fed's footsteps.
Taking a look at EURCAD chart at H4 interval, we can see that the pair recently bounced off the upward trendline, confirming a short-term upward trend. However, whether this trend lasts will soon be put to the test as the pair is closing in on the resistance zone ranging below 1.3550. This price zone has limited upward moves a few times already and therefore is a key short-term resistance.
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Source: xStation5
