EURCHF trades around 0.5-0.6% higher today. The pair is supported by CHF weakness triggered by Swiss CPI inflation reading for January, that was released today at 7:30 am GMT. Data showed headline inflation unexpectedly decelerating from 1.7% to 1.3% YoY, while analysts expected it to stay unchanged at 1.7% YoY. On a monthly basis, CPI inflation reached 0.2% MoM (exp. 0.6% MoM). This may pave the way for quicker rate cuts from Swiss National Bank. Money markets are now pricing 70 basis points of rate cuts in full-2024, up from around 62 basis points priced in yesterday. Nevertheless, money markets see less than 20% chance of SNB delivering a 25 bp rate cut at the upcoming meeting in March.
Taking a look at EURCHF chart at D1 interval, we can see that the pair was trading in a bearish channel since the beginning of 2023, spare for a few false breakouts. The pair jumped on today's softer CPI data from Switzerland and managed to break above the upper limit of the channel as well as above a local high from January 22, 2024. As a result, EURCHF is now trading at the highest level since mid-December 2023. The nearest resistance zone to watch can be found ranging below 0.9500 mark. The textbook range of the upside breakout from the channel suggests a possibility of a move towards the 0.9675 resistance zone.
Source: xStation5
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