Rate decision from the Bank of Canada at 3:00 pm GMT today is a key macro event of the day. Bank is expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate hike. Such a view is shared by most economists polled by Bloomberg and Reuters, and also money markets price in a move of such magnitude. This would mark a slowdown in the pace of tightening following two 50 bp rate hikes in October and December 2022. However, should the Bank surprise with today's decision, it looks more likely that it will be a dovish surprise (no hike) rather than a hawkish one (+50 bp move). Bank of Canada Governor Macklem will hold a post-meeting press conference one hour after the decision (4:00 pm GMT).
Taking a look at USDCAD chart at D1 interval, we can see that the pair is trading in a descending triangle pattern. A recent upward impulse was halted in the 1.3500 resistance zone, marked with a 50-session moving average (green line), and the pair started to pull back. A floor was formed in the 1.3350 area and should BoC deliver a hawkish surprise today, the pair may break below and look towards a test of the lower limit of the triangle pattern in the 1.3250 area. A textbook range of a breakout from this pattern is around 730 pips.
USDCAD at D1 interval. Source: xStation5
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