NATGAS is trading over 5% lower today, with US financial media pointing to a slightly cooler weather. On the other hand, looking at the 6-10 day weather forecasts, it is supposed to be basically hotter, and only in the 8-14 day forecast do we observe a significant drop in temperatures in the Midwest region. On the other hand, temperatures on the entire West Coast are expected to be high. At the same time, looking at the cooling degree day forecast, we do not see a large deviation from the averages. The key cooling period is the second half of July and the first half of August. This is when the largest seasonal increases in natural gas prices occur. Meanwhile, seasonality indicates possible short-term declines and a local low in the first half of June.
From a technical point of view, we can see that NATGAS pulls back from a key resistance area, marked with downward trend line and the range of the biggest upward correction in current impulse. Price is testing the 23.6% retracement of the last upward wave. If it falls below this support and the 14-session moving average, the correction may deepen to as low as $2.2 per MMBTu, where the 150-session moving average is located.
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Source: xStation5
