NATGAS surges 4.5% to 1-month high on lower output and solid demand 📈

Futures on US natural gas Henry Hub (NATGAS) surges today almost 5% to $3.80 per million btu, the highest since April 9.

• Traders appear increasingly focused on the key resistance zone near the $4 mark, driven by tighter U.S. supply, steady demand, and a more constructive technical setup. In April, both LNG feedgas flows and overall production saw a modest rise, but gas output from the Lower 48 states slipped — falling from 105.8 bcfd to 103.4 bcfd — drawing market attention.
• Currently, natural gas storage in the U.S. sits around 3% above the five-year seasonal average. This surplus is largely attributed to mild spring temperatures and planned maintenance at major export terminals, including Cameron LNG in Louisiana and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi facility in Texas.
• Looking ahead, analysts warn that if U.S. crude oil futures were to decline by 15% in 2025, this could slow down associated gas production — potentially lending support to natural gas prices. According to LSEG estimates, demand may dip briefly to 95.5 bcfd next week before recovering to around 98.2 bcfd shortly after.

While storage remains comfortably supplied for now, output limitations tied to scheduled plant outages could provide short-term price support, even if broader weather conditions remain mild. Today NATGAS surged above 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of the last downward wave from March.

Source: xStation5