Nickel prices are recording a strong rally and futures contracts are already approaching the vicinity of $19.5000 per ton. Exactly one week ago, on April 12, 2024, the United States and the United Kingdom imposed new sanctions on Russian raw materials. At the time, they banned trading in Russian nickel, aluminum and copper on the US CME commodity exchange and the UK LME. As a result, nickel futures prices rose.
- Geopolitics and a shortage of nickel stockpiles in Asia, as well as problems with the raw material's mines in Brazil and New Caledonia, pushed up prices for the raw material crucial to battery and stainless steel production. What's more, the rebuilding of nickel inventories in LME warehouses predicted by many analysts is still not happening. Stainless steel futures contracts on Asian commodity exchanges also rose today, up nearly 20% from $50 to $60 per metric ton.
- As for now, some market participants now expect nickel ore supply to slightly improve in Q2 as Indonesia mining quota approvals pick up and shipments from the Philippines recover after monsoon season. This could also exert downward pressure on nickel prices. However, in the near term, markets may react to adverse weather conditions and shortages. Major holidays in Indonesia and the Philippines would continue to impact mining operations.
Nickel (D1 interval)
Nickel futures rose today to levels not seen in nearly 30 weeks, and are trading up nearly 10% in April. A breakout above the upper limit of the upward channel signals a possible test of the strength of the current trend near $20,000 per ton, where we see the 71.6 Fibonacci retracement of the 2022 upward wave. Nickel is not the only commodity that saw a strong rebound in April. Copper contracts rose by 8%, and aluminum by almost 15%.
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Source: xStation5
Source: xStation5
