Oil prices have plummeted to their lowest level in four years, with West Texas Intermediate (OIL.WTI) crude dropping more than 19% in April while Brent trades near $61 a barrel. This marks the largest monthly decline since November 2021, driven by escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and OPEC+ supply increases.
Trade War and OPEC+ Squeeze Markets
President Donald Trump's April 2 announcement of sweeping tariffs, particularly targeting China, has severely dampened the energy consumption outlook. The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter for the first time since 2022, while China's factory activity fell into its worst contraction since December 2023. Major Wall Street banks including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have slashed their oil price forecasts, now projecting Brent to average $68.23 per barrel this year, down from March's forecast of $72.13.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ is considering accelerating production increases at its May 5 meeting, with Saudi Arabia reportedly prepared to weather prolonged low prices. Despite U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly dropping by 2.7 million barrels last week, market volatility has intensified, with the United States Oil Fund experiencing erratic trading flows and retail investor participation amplifying price swings.
OIL.WTI (D1)
Oil is currently retesting 4-year lows at 58 USD. Bears are likely to retest low at 55 USD while bulls will try to regain 60 USD.
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