TNOTE launched today's trading with a large bearish price gap. TNOTE dropped below a local low from mid-August at around 133.30 and is currently testing local low from mid-July at 133.00. Price is pulling back following a failed attempt of breaking above the 200-session moving average (purple line) and the downward trendline. TNOTE bulls tried to push the price above this hurdle thrice recently but has failed on each occasion. Should we see a break below the aforementioned 133.00 swing level, decline may deepen towards the 38.2% retracement of the upward move launched in October 2018 (132.00 area).
Powell's speech at 3:00 pm BST is a key event for TNOTE traders today. Hawkish comments from the Fed Chair may trigger sell-off on the bond market and push market rates higher in turn. However, this is not the base case scenario. Powell is expected to use recent pick-up in new Delta cases as an argument to hold policy loose for a little bit longer. However, hawkish comments from other Fed members, like for example Kaplan yesterday, signal that the group of central bankers in favour of rate hikes is growing. This is also the most likely reason behind today's TNOTE drop at the beginning of trading.
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Source: xStation5
