Daily summary: Data from China, Europe and the US suggest an impending global slowdown

01:05 25 ตุลาคม 2022
  • European indices finished today’s session with solid gains. German DAX and CAC40 added over 1.5% each led by gains in utilities and industrial companies. Risk sentiment returned to markets after Rishi Sunak was confirmed as UK's new prime minister. 
  • Flash indices in the euro zone indicate a slowdown. Only the French PMI for services remains above 50 points. The manufacturing PMI index drops to 45.7 points.

  • The UK PMI indices are also dipping lower, indicating that the British economy is headed for recession

  • Delayed data from China showed GDP growth in Q3 at 3.9%, above market estimates of 3.5%. This is a rebound compared to Q2, however well below the government's target of 5.5%

  • Upbeat moods prevailed also on Wall Street as investors digested the sell-off of Chinese stocks listed on the US  exchanges. President Xi secured a third leadership term and investors expect continued crackdown on the Chinese tech sector.

  • Both US services and manufacturing PMI indexes contracted below 50, which lifted market expectations that FED may ease the tightening cycle in the upcoming months. 

  • Tesla stock is falling after price cuts in China.

  • Gas prices in the Netherlands drop below EUR 100 / MWh for the first time since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. This is due to the fact that warehouses in Europe are full, with a very warm October and quite good weather forecasts for the coming months.

  • US natural gas futures bounced off support at  $5.35/MMBtu on expectations that LNG exports would increase due to the end of maintenance outages in plants including Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Cove Point LNG and Freeport LNG. 

  • Oil prices retreated on Monday after Chinese data showed that demand from the world's largest crude importer remained subdued in September as persistent coronavirus-induced restrictions and fuel export curbs suppressed consumption.

  • Downbeat moods prevail also on the precious metals market. Gold erased early losses and is trading 0.50% lower, while silver plunged 1.0% as dollar managed to recoup some of the recent losses, while the US 10-year Treasury yield bottomed around 4.2%, moving further away from an over 14-year high of 4.3% reached last week

  • Currently EUR and USD are the best performing major currencies while NZD and AUD lag the most.

  • Major cryptocurrencies also retreated. Bitcoin pulled back slightly to $19200, while Ethereum trades flat around $1335 level waiting for a catalyst for another move. 

USDJPY pair has recovered about half of its recent losses after Japanese authorities likely intervened again in the currency market, with an FT report suggesting that the government spent about $30 billion on Friday in its efforts. Nevertheless as long as the pair sits below the major resistance zone around 149.75, another downward impulse may be launched. Source: xStation5

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