Morning wrap (26.02.2025)

• Indices on Wall Street slightly rise after yesterday sell-off; US100 is up 0,4%, US500 rises 0,2% and VIX drops by 0,6%. Today the most important event for markets will be Nvidia earnings report after the US session. Previously at 3 PM GMT we will know US new home sales and EIA US oil inventories change at 3:30 PM GMT
• Futures on European indices like Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50), DAX (DE40) and FTSE (UK100) are 0.3% to 0.4% higher today. The US and Ukraine agree terms on a minerals deal after Washington dropped the toughest demands from it. Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy plans to travel to Washington on Friday to meet Donald Trump, according to media sources.
• Sentiments during the Asian session were positive. Chinese Hang Seng Index surged more than 3%, and futures on Chinese benchmarks HK.cash and CHN.cash are rising in the rang of 2,7 - 3,1%. We can see the investors' optimism that China’s technological breakthroughs will help revive the sluggish economy and attract foreign inflows into the country
• Both 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields are rising modestly today, by 3 basis points, trying to make up for some of yesterday's decline that boosted bond prices. Yesterday, after Conference Board consumer sentiment data showed the biggest decline since 2021, 10-year yields at one point were down almost 10 basis points

AUDUSD drops 0,35% after Australian data release:

• Australian CPI came in 2,5% YoY vs 2,6% exp. and 2,5% previously (trimmed CPI mean 2,8% vs 2,7% previously)
• Construction work done rise only 0,5% MoM, while markets expected 1% rise after 1,6% previously

• Oil slightly rebounds after yesterday sell-off. The US API crude oil inventories fell by -0.64M vs 2.3M exp. and 3.34M previously
• Bitcoin tries to rise above $89k again, but crypto market is still under pressure, and BTC price is still 3% below the $92,5k average Short-Term-Holders price 
• According to Fed's Barkin, federal layoffs may be a big deal for the regional economy, but they are only 2% of the national job market. At the same time Barkin expects that upcoming (Friday 1:30 PM GMT) PCE will show a further decline, because the Fed has made a lot of progress.