US natural gas prices have been climbing recently. NATGAS is trading over 50% above local lows reach in mid-April. There was quite a noticeable futures contract rollover in the second half of April, that added around 16% to NATGAS price. However, even after adjusting for this rollover gain, NATGAS is still trading around 35% higher than a month ago!
There are fundamental reasons behind the move higher. Supply remains disrupted by Red Sea tensions, with flows through Suez Canal dropping significantly. Moreover, a drought in Panama has also cut traffic in the Panama Canal, which is the shortest maritime route US LNG to reach Asia. Also, Qatar is making investments in new production capacity and while this hints at increase in supply, it also highlights Qatar's confidence that demand for gas will continue in spite of green transition.
Weekly EIA report on US natural gas inventories released today showed a smaller than expected build in US stockpiles, what added fuel to the ongoing move. As a result, NATGAS is trading over 5% higher and is attempting to make a clear break above the $2.50 resistance zone. Commodity is trading at the highest level in 4 months!
Source: xStation5
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